The title of a recently released CNN article is “Polls show size of Romney’s post-debate BOUNCE” (Web-site/URL: http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/10/politics/debate-bounce-polls/index.html). WHICH WAY did this “bounce” go?
“Need any more evidence that debates DO matter in the presidential election? A slew of national polls and surveys from crucial swing states suggests that they do”.
“President Barack Obama MAINTAINED a narrow lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney in most national polls through the summer and HAD THE ADVANTAGE in BATTLEGROUND states that will determine the outcome of the election”. Key Words: “narrow” and “battleground states”. “battleground states” of course are CRITICAL because these are the states which OFTEN decide an election.
“But polls taken after Obama’s LACKLUSTER performance in last week’s first presidential debate (October 3, 2012) indicate that Romney got a MEASURABLE (i.e. SIGNIFICANT) bounce — enough to put him IN THE LEAD in SEVERAL national surveys and to tighten the race in some BATTLEGROUNDS“. WOW. So Romney winning the White House ISN’T such a long shot now. Also once again the importance of “battlegrounds” is reinforced and OBAMA and “lackluster” is surely a STRANGE combination – a combination that we’re surely NOT used to seeing.
According to CNN Senior Political Analyst and National Journal Editorial Director Ron Brownstein, “It’s possible, even reasonable, to quibble with the likely voter sample of any individual poll, but the OVERALL direction of the surveys released since the debate is unmistakable: They all suggest that IN THAT DEBATE, Romney changed a critical dynamic in the race“. Key Phrase: “in that debate”. Well, this is ONE debate. Can he continue to do that? “Obama’s widened lead in September (2012) depended IN PART on voters who were somewhat DISSATISFIED with his performance, BUT WERE STICKING WITH HIM BECAUSE THEY DID NOT VIEW Romney AS A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE — largely because they didn’t believe (that) he UNDERSTOOD or CARED ABOUT people like them“. THIS IS STILL THE CASE. Romney’s lack of EMPATHY will surely undo him at the end (Web-site/URL: ).http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4h7cmuRLwME&feature=relmfu). Let’s also note a political fundamental. Most people vote for a given candidate, not because they like or support their chosen candidate, but rather because they DON’T like/support the other candidate(s). “What’s clear is that at the first debate, Romney crossed the threshold FOR AN IMPORTANT SHARE OF THOSE VOTERS, WHO NOW DO SEE HIM AS A REASONABLE ALTERNATIVE to Obama”. Again, WE MUST BE “reasonable”. Surely, NO ONE wants to be around someone who is IRRATIONAL. IS Romney “REASONABLE?” Again, of course, this is open to INTERPRETATIONS (Web-site/URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgnAY_eXYbI).
According to CNN Chief National Correspondent John King, “The new polls are a HUGE boost for Republicans, coming just a couple weeks after a string of polls made them wonder IF THERE WAS ANY WAY to win without Ohio. THERE IS CLEARLY MOVEMENT in Ohio similar to what we see nationally. You see it in our numbers. It’s a VERY CLOSE race in Ohio and YOU FEEL IT talking to people on the ground“. This is a reporter’s job/role/function – to “feel” or EXPERIENCE things and then come back and tell us about it.
“Republican Sen. Rob Portman said he had EXPECTED to polls to tighten up in his home state (Ohio)”. “The poll numbers are showing some movement“. HOW MUCH is “some?” “But you know, I’VE ALWAYS THOUGHT (that) this was going to be a very close race in Ohio”. This is the latest example of a POLITICIAN SHOWING OFF/a POLITICIAN‘s ARROGANCE (Web-site/URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgnAY_eXYbI).
“Portman is a leading Romney surrogate and a top adviser to his campaign. Portman is also playing the role of Obama in Romney’s debate preparations. Asked if Romney is sensing ENTHUSIASM, Portman said, “Yeah, I THINK SO“. Both campaigns are cautiously optimistic.
“But earlier Tuesday (October 9, 2012), Romney campaign spokesman Kevin Madden CAUTIONED that “this is a campaign that’s NEVER (?) gotten too high when things are good (and) too low when things are bad“, adding that “WE STILL BELIEVE that this is going to be a campaign that’s VERY close” obviously.
Finally, Brownstein finished off: “The new polls DON’T mean (that) Romney IS GOING TO win (of course), or is even ahead today IF it was possible to precisely measure that. But they do mean that we are returning to a race that reflects the country’s near 50-50 division over Obama’s performance and, as such, IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOSE AND WITHIN REACH for BOTH men through November (2012)”. This is THE ONLY thing we can guarantee right now.
This is a significant development. Early on, we EXPECTED President Obama to be re-elected relatively easily. Now, it’s clear that THIS WILL BE A NAIL-BITER UNTIL NOVEMBER 6, 2012.