The title of a recently released Yahoo! article is “Dow closes ABOVE 13,000, first time since crisis” (Web-site/URL: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-closes-above-13-000-first-time-since-210820884.html).
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on Tuesday (February 28, 2012) FINALLY reclaimed the ground it held before THE CARNAGE of the Great Recession — bailouts, bank failures, layoffs by the MILLION and a stock market PANIC that cut retirement savings in half”. “the carnage” and “panic” clearly carry VERY NEGATIVE connotations.
“According to PRELIMINARY calculations, the Dow finished at 13,005.12, up 23.61 points for the day (February 28, 2012)“. That’s only a small gain and these are only “PRELIMINARY calculations”. On top of this, the Dow is only 5 points above 13000 so it could EASILY fall back down.
Marc Scudillo, “managing officer at EisnerAmper, a financial advice company in Bridgewater, N.J.”, “People can see that the markets bounce BACK and are RESILIENT OVER TIME“. They might also “bounce” in the WRONG direction. “That’s A POWERFUL MESSAGE“, which, again, can be either POSITIVE or NEGATIVE.
According to Ryan Detrick, “(a) senior technical strategist for Schaffer’s Investment Research”. “Two months ago (December, 2011), we were talking about a DOUBLE-DIP recession. Now, consumer confidence is GROWING“, which is something we HAVEN’T been able to say for a long time now, but again, the question is: CAN THIS TREND BE MAINTAINED? “A MAJOR MILESTONE like 13,000 WAKES UP a lot of investors WHO HAVE MISSED A LOT OF THIS RALLY“. OK, so “this rally” has reached 13K. The next critical task is MAINTAINING IT/STAYING AROUND THAT LEVEL.
Finally, “John Manley, chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo’s funds group, said investors haven’t forgotten the “black swans“ surrounding the market — a term traders use for events outside of what is normally predicted”. “We know that PROFITS eventually HAVE TO COME DOWN, we know that SOMETHING will happen in the Middle East (MASSIVE instability) (and) we know that Greece ISN’T going to do everything it says it’s going to do. We’re seeing black swans EVERYWHERE“. Will OPTIMISM prevail or will these “black swans” win out? Again we always have to look at the other side of the issue. Manley is playing the role of HAROLD CAMPING, architect of the “End of the World” prediction back in 2011 (Web-site/URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Camping). Well, we can now say that John Manley is THE HAROLD CAMPING OF ECONOMICS/BUSINESS/FINANCE, because many other experts agree that the economy is showing signs of life, but Manley is talking about “black swans” better known as TROUBLE SPOTS. We can agree on several things however: the Dow COULD QUICKLY fall below 13K (the Dow could lose MUCH MORE THAN 5 points on any given day) and UNEMPLOYMENT in state such as NEVADA (12.6%) and CALIFORNIA (11.1%) remain PERSISTENTLY HIGH and JOBS are surely THE BIGGEST DRAG on the economy right now.